Jan-Mar 2025 1st Preliminary GDP Estimate
Despite growth in private sector demand, real GDP registers negative growth for the first time in four quarters due to a decline in net exports and other factors
May 19, 2025
Summary
◆The real GDP growth rate for Jan-Mar 2025 (1st preliminary est) was down by -0.7% q/q annualized (-0.2% q/q), the first time in four quarters it has registered negative growth. The main reason was a decline in net exports, though at the same time, private sector demand experienced growth. However, rising food prices have had an impact on personal consumption, with the pace of recovery in consumption slowing further and causing sluggish growth.
◆Our outlook for the real GDP growth rate in the Apr-Jun period sees growth at the lower end of the +0% q/q annualized level (around +0.1% q/q). Depending on the direction of the Trump administration's high tariff policy and the extent of its impact on economic activity both domestically and overseas, negative growth is possible for two consecutive quarters. Due to the strong sense of uncertainty about the future, households and corporations will have no choice but to be cautious in their economic activities, hence GDP for the Apr-Jun period is likely to show strong signs of stagnation.
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