January 2025 Industrial Production

◆The January 2025 indices of industrial production declined by -1.1% m/m in agreement with market consensus. The indices have declined for three consecutive months. Production was slow in production machinery, electronic parts and devices, and other industries. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry has left its economic assessment unchanged at “Industrial Production fluctuates indecisively.”

◆As for the future of industrial production, the indices are expected to continue marking time. The silicon cycle is expected to peak out in the middle of 2025 and hence semiconductor related goods will not be the main growth factor in the production indices for much longer. Meanwhile, if “Trump tariffs 2.0” are implemented, this will be a negative factor for domestic production. Continued attention should be paid to the trend of additional tariff measures.

◆The January Indexes of Business Conditions are to be published on March 10, 2025, and the leading index is expected to be down by -0.6pt m/m to 107.7, and the coincident index is expected to be down by -0.6pt to 115.8. Based on the predicted value, the assessment of the coincident index for January 2025 will automatically be left unchanged at “halting to fall.”