November 2024 Trade Statistics
While export value grows due to weak yen, export volume centering on motor vehicles suffers decline
December 19, 2024
Summary
◆According to November 2024 trade statistics, export value grew for the second consecutive month by +3.8% y/y. The main reason was that the Japan Customs rate saw the yen weaken and the dollar strengthen on a y/y basis, pushing up export prices. On a seasonally adjusted basis, export value grew for the first time in two months by +0.2% m/m. Import value declined for the first time in eight months by -3.8% y/y, while on a seasonally adjusted basis, import value grew for the first time in four months by +1.9% m/m. As a result, the trade balance was in the red for the fifth consecutive month at -117.6 bil yen. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it was in the red for the 42nd consecutive month at -382.2 bil yen.
◆Export volume in November declined for the second consecutive month at -2.8% m/m. Declines in motor vehicle exports to the US and Europe weighed down on overall performance. Recovery exports in motor vehicles due to the easing of supply constraints appears to be running its course. Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports were down overall, with the US down by -8.2%, the EU down by -7.3%, and Asia down by -0.6%.
◆Export volume is expected to mark time on average. While recovery production can be expected due to the easing of supply constraints for motor vehicles, and the recovery of the silicon cycle promises to bring positive exports for semiconductor related goods, exports are expected to be sluggish overall due mainly to the moderate slowdown in the US economy. Moreover, if the US implements additional tariff measures as has been suggested by president-elect Donald Trump, there is the risk that trade and economies worldwide will suffer a standstill.
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