Jul-Sep 2024 2nd Preliminary GDP Estimate

◆The real GDP growth rate for Jul-Sep 2024 (2nd preliminary est) was revised upwards to +1.2% q/q annualized in comparison to the 1st preliminary result (+0.9%). This time, a wide range of demand items were revised, partly because the 2023 Annual National Accounts Estimate was reflected, and exports, capital investment, etc. were revised upwards. On the other hand, private consumption and government consumption were revised downwards. While various factors brought negative influence on economic activity, such as continued price highs, some factory shutdowns due to a typhoon, and fears of a major earthquake, private consumption continued to recover due to the improved household income environment and provided a boost to real GDP.

◆The Oct-Dec period real GDP growth rate is expected to continue its recovery for private sector demand components including private consumption. The growth rate is expected to be at around +2.3% q/q annualized (around +0.6% q/q). Various growth factors are seen, including normalization of production for motor vehicles, which is expected to bring an increase in production, continued improvements in the income environment, a strong appetite for capex spending on the part of corporations, and a comeback for inbound consumption.