October 2024 Trade Statistics
Export value recovers with positive figures on a y/y basis due to favorable results for semicon machinery etc.
November 21, 2024
Summary
◆According to October 2024 trade statistics, export value grew for the first time in two months by +3.1% y/y. Although the reaction to recovery production in motor vehicles from the same period last year was a negative factor, underlying support was provided by semicon machinery etc., bringing solid results. On a seasonally adjusted basis, export value declined for the first time in two months by -0.7% m/m. Import value grew for the seventh consecutive month by +0.4% y/y, but the growth rate is slowing down as yen appreciation progresses on a y/y basis. On a seasonally adjusted basis, import value grew for the first time in three months by +0.2% m/m. As a result, the trade balance was in the red for the fourth consecutive month at -461.2 bil yen. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it was in the red for the 41st consecutive month at -357.7 bil yen.
◆Export volume in October declined for the first time in two months at -1.6% m/m. Both motor vehicles and semicon machinery etc. achieved favorable performance, but intermediate goods such as iron and steel products, plastic materials, and parts of motor vehicles brought negative pressure on overall performance. The influence of the hurricanes in the US is assumed to have temporarily suppressed demand. Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports to the US were down by -12.8%, with the EU down by -1.2%, while Asia was up by +0.3%.
◆Export volume is expected to mark time on average. While recovery production can be expected due to the easing of supply constraints for motor vehicles, and the recovery of the silicon cycle promises to bring positive exports for semiconductor related goods, exports are expected to be sluggish overall due mainly to the moderate slowdown in the US economy. Moreover, if the US raises the average tariff rate as has been suggested by president-elect Donald Trump who will take office in January 2025, there is the risk that trade and economies worldwide will suffer a standstill.
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