Apr-Jun 2024 2nd Preliminary GDP Estimate

◆The real GDP growth rate for Apr-Jun 2024 (2nd preliminary est) was revised to +2.9% q/q annualized, reducing the extent of increase in the growth rate in comparison to the 1st preliminary result (+3.1%). While capex and private consumption were revised downwards, housing investment was revised upwards. Normalization of motor vehicle production has progressed, boosting private consumption, capex, and exports. The income environment has also improved, and this has led to growth in private consumption for the first time in five quarters, while in addition, growth was observed in a wide range of demand components. This confirms that the Japanese economy is emerging from its stagnant phase during the Apr-Jun period.

◆The Jul-Sep period real GDP growth rate is expected to continue its recovery for components including private consumption and capex, though caution is required regarding the effects of the typhoon which hit in the month of August and other factors. The growth rate is expected to be at around +2% q/q annualized (around +0.5% q/q). On the other hand, continued attention should be paid to factors such as the downside risk in exports due to deterioration in overseas economies such as the US economy, and the effects of yen appreciation.