April 2024 Industrial Production

◆The April 2024 indices of industrial production declined for the first time in two months by -0.1% m/m. In addition to reactionary declines experienced on an m/m basis in transport equipment (excluding motor vehicles), the motor vehicles industry also shifted into a decline in production due to halts in production of certain models. As for other industries, the production index rose in production machinery due to growth in production of semiconductor manufacturing equipment backed by the recovery in the silicon cycle. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry has left its economic assessment unchanged at “Industrial Production fluctuates indecisively, but it has weakened.”

◆As for the future of industrial production, the indices are expected to grow moderately. Domestic production capacity of motor vehicles is back to normal for the most part, and recovery production to eliminate order backlog is expected. In addition, production of semiconductor related goods is expected to see continued growth. However, caution is required in regard to the risk of downward pressure on the production indices due to the strengthening of export control regulations, which are expected to cause a decline in sales of semiconductor related goods in China.

◆The April 2024 Indexes of Business Conditions are to be published on June 7, 2024, and the leading index is expected to be down by -1.0pt to 111.2, while the coincident index is expected to be up by +0.9pt to 114.5. Based on the predicted value, the assessment of coincident index for April 2024 has automatically been left unchanged at "signaling a possible turning point."