October 2022 Consumer Price Index

◆Japan’s October 2022 core CPI (excluding fresh foods) was at +3.6% y/y, recording its highest growth rate in around forty years since February 1982. Growth rates grew for both goods and services. Due to the influence of the rush to raise prices on food items, the growth rate of non-durables accelerated, while price hikes spread to a wide range of other components as well.

◆Japan’s core CPI is expected to continue experiencing upward pressure influenced by high import prices, while at the same time reflecting strong influence from the government’s comprehensive stimulus package, including the Fuel Oil Price Fluctuation Mitigation Program. On a quarterly basis, the growth rate will peak in the Oct-Dec period of 2022 and then decline sharply in the Jan-Mar through Jul-Sep periods of 2023 due to the effects of the high energy price measures. The growth rate will accelerate again from the Oct-Dec period onward when the effects of the measures have worn off. The underlying tone of prices is expected to continue to rise moderately against the backdrop of an improvement in the supply-demand gap.