Apr-Jun 2022 2nd Preliminary GDP Estimate

◆The real GDP growth rate for Apr-Jun 2022 (2nd preliminary est) was revised upwards to +3.5% q/q annualized (+0.9% q/q), in comparison to the 1st preliminary results which were at +2.2% q/q annualized. Looking at performance by major component, the extent of decline in contribution from change in private inventories was reduced by 0.1%pt in comparison to the 1st preliminary results, while private non-residential investment and other components showed a higher growth rate. While there was growth in private consumption as the spread of COVID-19 began to play itself out, production and supplies were stagnant centering on motor vehicles and household electronics due to lockdowns in China and elsewhere in Asia. Real GDI growth rate was at -0.0%, a sign that household and corporate income has not improved. This is a point requiring attention.

◆The 2022 Jul-Sep period real GDP growth rate is expected to be at +3.5% q/q annualized. We expect real GDP to exceed its record high level (Apr-Jun 2018) in the Apr-Jun 2023 period. There were no restrictions on personal behaviors announced by the government despite Japan having been in its seventh wave of COVID-19 infections, and negative influence on summertime personal consumption was avoided. The COVID-19 situation continues to improve, and normalization of the economy is expected to continue through the fall.