November 2021 Industrial Production

◆The November 2021 indices of industrial production grew for the second consecutive month at +7.2% m/m, while at the same time exceeding market consensus at +4.8%. Motor vehicles experienced a sharp recovery as parts supply constraints eased up, increasing overall results by +4.9%pt. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has therefore revised its economic assessment upwards to “shows signs of an upward movement”.

◆As for the future of industrial production, performance is expected to move toward a moderate recovery phase. Motor vehicles and semiconductor-related goods are expected to lead in overall industrial growth. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Production Forecast Survey sees December 2021 production up by +1.6% in comparison to the previous month (or -1.3% when corrected for production plan bias (mode)). Meanwhile, January 2022 production is expected to be up by +5.0%. However, it should be noted that some additional production cuts by motor vehicle manufacturers have not been included in the calculation of the index.

◆The November Indexes of Business Conditions are to be published on January 11, 2022, and the leading index, the composite index, is expected to be up by +1.5pt to 103.0, while the coincident index is expected to be up by +3.8pt to 93.6. Based on the predicted value, the assessment of the coincident index will automatically be left at “weakening.”