November 2021 Trade Statistics

◆According to November 2021 trade statistics, export value grew for the ninth month in a row at +20.5% y/y. Motor vehicle exports have now made a major comeback, and the recovery in overall growth has also experienced a major pickup in pace. Meanwhile, in seasonally adjusted terms, export value grew for the second consecutive month at +5.3% m/m, making up for the momentary slowdown experienced in September. Meanwhile, import value continued major growth at +43.8% y/y, buoyed by the rising price of energy components. Growth was at a high level in seasonally adjusted terms as well, at +5.9% m/m, growing for the fourth consecutive month. In response, the trade balance was at -954.8 bil yen, with the seasonally adjusted value at -486.8 bil yen, its seventh consecutive month of being in the red.

◆Export volume (seasonally adjusted by DIR) grew for the second consecutive month at +6.8% m/m. Looking at export volume by source of demand, growth was seen across the board, with the US at +3.7%, the EU at +3.4%, and Asia at +2.7%.

◆As for the future of exports, moderate growth is expected. Recovery production is expected to continue to progress in motor vehicles, a major component, but the worldwide shortage in semiconductors continues, hence it is difficult to expect a sharp recovery in production. Export value is expected to gradually recover as supply constraints are moderated. Meanwhile, the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 is likely to reduce consumption opportunities in many countries, posing a downside risk to exports from Japan.