June 2021 Trade Statistics

◆According to June 2021 trade statistics, export value grew considerably by +48.6% y/y. Despite negative factors such as weak exports to Asia, which had led overall results until now, as well as weak exports to the EU, which had been showing signs of making a comeback, overall performance was buoyed by exports to the US, where economic recovery is already on track. On the other hand, the 2021 Apr-Jun period trade balance was only a bit into the black with supply constraints in the background at +11.4 bil yen (seasonally adjusted). This is a major setback in comparison to the Jan-Mar period when the trade balance was at +911.3 bil yen.

◆Export volume (seasonally adjusted by DIR) grew for the first time in two months at +2.8% m/m. Looking at export volume by source of demand, EU activity suffered a decline at -4.9%, while export volume to Asia also declined by -1.4%. Meanwhile, export volume to the US boosted overall performance, growing by +3.7%.

◆As for the future of exports, the growth trend is expected to continue. Exports to China will remain at a high level against the backdrop of strong demand for infrastructure investment, and exports to Europe and the US, which had been at a standstill, will also increase. On the whole, exports are expected to maintain good performance, but it should be noted that there are risk factors here and there unique to each region, as well as the expansion of highly infectious mutant strains of COVID-19 (especially the Delta strain) and supply constraints due to the semiconductor shortage.