April 2021 Trade Statistics

◆According to April 2021 trade statistics, export value grew by +38.0% y/y, its highest growth rate in eleven years. In seasonally adjusted terms export value grew for the second consecutive month at +2.5% m/m. Exports of semicon machinery etc. to China led overall performance, while export value (seasonally adjusted) recovered to nearly the level of 2018 before US-China trade friction heated up.

◆Export volume (seasonally adjusted by DIR) marked time for the most part at +0.1% m/m. Looking at export volume by source of demand, performance shifted into the negative range for the US at -1.0%, and the EU at -4.3%, while exports to Asia achieved growth for the second consecutive month at +0.7%.As for exports to the US and the EU, cars, which contributed to growth during the previous month, suffered a decline. Meanwhile, exports to Asia were led by semicon machinery etc. exports to China, while in other parts of Asia car exports achieved growth.

◆As for the future of exports, the growth trend is expected to continue. Exports will likely be led by trade with the US where large-scale economic measures are being implemented, and China, where a high level of infrastructure investment is expected. However, the worldwide shortage in semiconductors is holding down domestic automobile production, so we must keep in mind that this could lead to a slowdown in exports.