March 2021 Trade Statistics

◆According to March 2021 trade statistics, export value grew by +16.1% y/y, while significantly exceeding market consensus at +11.4%. In seasonally adjusted terms export value grew for the first time in two months at +4.5% m/m. February results suffered from a late Chinese New Year season, causing a decline in exports to Asian countries including China. Meanwhile, exports to the US also declined due to deep freeze. March results are seen as benefitting from the rebound effect, while exports to the EU also grew, thereby contributing further to overall growth.

◆Export volume (seasonally adjusted by DIR) also grew for the first time in two months at +4.0% m/m. Looking at export volume by source of demand, performance was up in all regions, with the US at +5.3%, the EU at +15.1%, and exports to Asia at +7.6%. As for exports to the US and Asia, products which experienced declines during the previous month shifted back into growth. Meanwhile, exports to the EU were favorable for motor vehicles and intermediate goods. This is seen as a reflection of the comeback in orders from the manufacturing industry in countries such as Germany.

◆As for the future of exports, the recovery trend is expected to continue. Exports to the US and China are expected be the leaders in overall performance with additional economic measures being implemented in the US, and a high level of infrastructure investment seen in China. However, the worldwide shortage in semiconductors is holding down domestic automobile production, so we must keep in mind that this could lead to a slowdown in exports.