August 17, 2017
Summary
◆According to July trade statistics, export value grew by +13.4% y/y, exceeding last month’s result of +9.6%. The influential factor here was an increase in the growth rate of export price in y/y terms (+5.5% in June to +10.5% in July). Meanwhile, the Japan Customs rate in July was at 112.41 yen/dlr, representing yen depreciation of 9.0% in y/y terms.
◆Looking at the seasonally adjusted values, we see export value at +2.8% m/m, and export volume increasing for the third consecutive month at +0.4% (seasonal adjustment by DIR). Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports to the US were up by +5.3%, while exports to Asia grew by +1.1%. On the other hand, exports to the EU declined by -1.7%.
◆As for the future of exports, we see steady growth continuing for the overseas economy centering on exports to the EU. However, we advise caution as regards downside risk in the area of overseas demand. In the US, the Fed is expected to implement further interest rate hikes, as well as asset reduction, and this is expected to trigger a downturn in the US economy, while encouraging capital outflows from the emerging nations.
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