Oct-Dec 2015 2nd Preliminary GDP Estimate
Real GDP growth rate revised upwards slightly from 1st preliminary; results within range of expectations
March 09, 2016
◆The real GDP growth rate for Oct-Dec 2015 (2nd preliminary est) was revised upwards slightly to -1.1% q/q annualized (-0.3% q/q) in comparison to the 1st preliminary report (-1.4% q/q annualized and -0.4% q/q). Results also exceeded market consensus due to the upward revision of capex, which was expected to be revised downwards on the 1st preliminary report, and the upward revision of inventory investment, which was seen marking time on the 1st preliminary report. All in all, these results confirmed our previous opinion that Japan’s economy was in a lull during the fourth quarter.
◆Performance by demand component in comparison to the 1st preliminary results shows personal consumption and public investment recording downward revisions, while inventory and capex achieved slight upward revisions, helping to increase overall results. Capex was revised upwards to +1.5% q/q in comparison to +1.4% on the 1st preliminary report due to corporate statistics. Meanwhile, inventory investment was revised upwards slightly to -0.0% pt q/q in comparison to -0.1% pt on the 1st preliminary report, exceeding market expectations at -0.1% pt.
Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. reserves all copyrights of this content.
Copyright permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. is required in case of any reprint, translation, adaptation or abridgment under the copyright law. It is illegal to reprint, translate, adapt, or abridge this material without the permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd., and to quote this material represents a failure to abide by this act. Legal action may be taken for any copyright infringements. The organization name and title of the author described above are as of today.