September 19, 2013
Summary
◆In the August 2013 Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance), export value posted a y/y advance for the sixth month in a row (up 14.7%), almost on par with consensus expectations (up 14.5%). Meanwhile, it posted the first m/m gain in two months (up 2.2%; seasonally adjusted) and posted the ninth consecutive gain on a three-month moving average basis, indicating the underlying uptrend continues.
◆The Export Volume Index (seasonally adjusted by DIR) posted the first m/m gain in three months (up 1.2%). Export volume has firmed up in general, albeit at a moderate pace. By trading partner, the index to the EU declined after advancing substantially in July. However, the index to Asian trading partners and to the US increased and pushed up overall export volume.
◆We anticipate export value continuing to increase, factoring in the global economic recovery, centering on the US, and considering the lagging effects of the weaker yen since end-2012 being felt. Meanwhile, the EU economy is signaling a bottoming out of the ongoing recession, indicating export volume to the EU is also likely to firm up gradually from persistent stagnation. However, ASEAN economies have slowed down, and the possibility of weakening exports to Asian trading partners warrants a close watch.
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