Where is Xi Jinping's China headed?

Deciphering the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and Party personnel affairs


February 10, 2023

  • Naoto Saito
  • Rie Nakada


◆As a result of analyzing the report presented by General Secretary Xi Jinping at the National Congress of the Communist Party using WordCloud, we were able to detect two underlying attitudes.

◆The first is to prepare for a conflict with the United States. In the third term of the Xi Jinping administration, under the new development goal of Chinese path to modernization, the government will try to achieve independence and strengthen science and technology, security, and other areas.

◆The second is to uphold and strengthen the leadership of the Party Central Committee. The report repeatedly emphasizes the term "the rule of law(法治)" and it is believed that the Party Central Committee will strengthen its unified management system through the development of laws and supervisory systems.

◆In the party personnel system, Xi Jinping's one-strong system was created, and there are great concerns about its harmful effects. Even if Xi's policy is wrong, it will be difficult to correct the trajectory once it is on its way. Moreover, being overly cautious poses the risk that policymaking and execution will go beyond or against Xi's intentions. Xi has a strong socialist orientation, and it is likely that such policies will be strengthened in the future.

◆The Chinese economy in 2023 can be expected to grow by more than 6% over the previous year, driven by the previous three years' worth of revenge spending, if the conversion to “living-with-COVID” is accomplished.

◆On the other hand, if there is backpedaling on the Zero-COVID Policy, growth could be limited to 3%.

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