September Trade Statistics
Export volume for the Jul-Sep period grows by +2.0% q/q despite setback in this month’s performance
October 19, 2017
Summary
◆According to September trade statistics, export value grew by +14.1% y/y, while falling below market consensus at +15.0%. The extent to which export value grew shrank in comparison to the previous month’s result of +18.1%. The main factor behind slower growth was a decline in export volume to the US. The Japan Customs rate in September was 109.48 yen/dlr, representing yen depreciation of 7.5% in y/y terms.
◆Looking at seasonally adjusted values, we see export value at -0.3% m/m, its first decline in three months, while export volume suffered a decline for the first time in five months at -2.0% (seasonal adjustment by DIR). Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports to the US declined by -1.6%, while exports to the EU declined by -2.7%, and Asia also with a decline of -0.4%. Jul-Sep period export volume came in at +2.0% in comparison to the previous quarter.
◆As for the future of exports, we see underlying strength continuing for the overseas economy bringing moderate growth in Japan’s exports. However, we advise caution as regards downside risk in the area of overseas demand. In the US, the Fed is expected to implement further interest rate hikes, and this could lead to a downturn in the US economy, while encouraging capital outflows from the emerging nations.
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