August Trade Statistics
Exports continue growth trend due to worldwide increase in demand for semiconductors
September 20, 2017
Summary
◆According to August trade statistics, export value grew by +18.1% y/y, exceeding last month’s result of +13.4%. The main factor behind growth was an increase in the growth rate of export volume to Asia. The Japan Customs rate in August was 110.77 yen/dlr, representing yen depreciation of 7.3% in y/y terms.
◆Looking at seasonally adjusted values, we see export value at +1.2% m/m, its second consecutive month of growth, and export volume increasing for the fourth consecutive month at +2.7% (seasonal adjustment by DIR). Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports to Asia grew by +3.6%, while exports to the US declined by -2.2%. Meanwhile, exports to the EU declined by -1.7%.
◆As for the future of exports, we see steady growth continuing for the overseas economy bringing moderate growth in exports. However, we advise caution as regards downside risk in the area of overseas demand. In the US, the Fed is expected to implement further interest rate hikes, as well as asset reduction, and this could lead to a downturn in the US economy, while encouraging capital outflows from the emerging nations.
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