May 22, 2017
Summary
◆According to April trade statistics, export value grew for the fifth consecutive month at +7.5% y/y, while at the same time falling below market consensus at +8.0%. Export volume in y/y terms grew less than in the previous month (+4.1% in April as compared to +6.6% in March), while export price also grew less than in the previous month (+3.2% in April as compared to +5.0% in March). Meanwhile, the Japan Customs rate in April was at 110.92 yen/dlr, meaning yen appreciation of 0.3% in y/y terms.
◆Export value in seasonally adjusted terms suffered a decline for the second consecutive month at -0.2% m/m, along with export volume which also declined at -1.7% (seasonal adjustment by DIR). Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports to the US were up by +3.1% m/m, while exports to the EU were also up at +2.1%, both for the first time in two months. On the other hand, exports to Asia were down for the second consecutive month at -1.0%.
◆As for the future of exports, we see moderate growth continuing due to the underlying strength of overseas economies. However, we advise caution as regards downside risk in the area of overseas demand. If US trade policy under the Trump administration becomes more protectionist, this could cause global trade to stagnate. We expect this issue to remain a risk factor for the mid to long-term.
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