February Trade Statistics

Export volume confirms entry into expansion phase

RSS
  • Keisuke Okamoto
  • Shunsuke Kobayashi

Summary

◆According to February trade statistics, export value grew for the third consecutive month at +11.3% y/y, while at the same time exceeding market consensus at +10.1%. In addition to the export price increasing the extent of its gains, export volume, which had suffered a decline in January due to the Lunar New Year celebrations in the Sinosphere, achieved growth for the first time in two months, thereby contributing to major gains in export value.


◆Export value in seasonally adjusted terms grew for the seventh consecutive month at +6.1% m/m, while export volume grew for the first time in three months at +4.7% (seasonal adjustment by DIR). Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports to the US were up by +2.9% m/m, while exports to the EU were also up for the first time in three months by +9.5%. Exports to Asia grew for the first time in two months at +9.1%. As for export volume by product, non-ferrous metals and buses & trucks continued to grow, while ICs and two-wheelers suffered declines. Exports to Asia saw growth for most products, with export volume in the areas of paper and paper products, ICs, and auto parts doing especially well. It appears as if exports to China are back to normal with the New Year’s vacation over.


◆As for the future of exports, we see moderate growth continuing due to the underlying strength of overseas economies. However, we advise caution as regards risk factors associated with the possibility that the US trade policy could become more protectionist under the new Trump administration. If trade friction arises between Japan and the US, Japan’s export-driven industries could be hard hit. For this reason we will be closely watching the US-Japan trade talks planned for April.

Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. reserves all copyrights of this content.
Copyright permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. is required in case of any reprint, translation, adaptation or abridgment under the copyright law. It is illegal to reprint, translate, adapt, or abridge this material without the permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd., and to quote this material represents a failure to abide by this act. Legal action may be taken for any copyright infringements. The organization name and title of the author described above are as of today.