November Trade Statistics

◆According to November 2016 trade statistics, export value declined for the fourteenth consecutive month by -0.4% y/y. The extent of the decline shrank significantly in comparison to the previous month, while at the same time exceeding market consensus. Last October export volume suffered a decline, but the November result jumped considerably. This was the main factor behind November’s export value being on the up side. Import value declined for the 23rd consecutive month by -8.8% y/y, bringing the trade balance into the black for the third consecutive month at +152.5 bil yen.

◆Export value in seasonally adjusted terms grew for the fourth consecutive month at +4.3% m/m, while export volume grew as well for the third consecutive month by +4.5% (seasonal adjustment by DIR). Looking at export volume by source of demand, exports to the US grew for the third consecutive month at +1.7%. Meanwhile, EU exports grew for the third consecutive month by +0.9%, with exports to Asia up for the second consecutive month at +4.0%. As for export volume by product, export volume of autos to the US grew, while exports of auto parts to both Asia and the US also won major growth. Export volume of ICs to Asia, which had weakened temporarily, grew along with export volume of recording media, leading overall performance to positive gains.

◆As for the future of exports, there is a very good possibility that moderate growth can be maintained due to the continuing growth in overseas economies. However, more time will likely be required for overseas demand to build a sustainable recovery. In addition, if protectionist sentiments, such as are seen in the Trump administration now forming, begin to spread around the world, there is a risk that global trade value will shrink significantly. We therefore urge caution as regards overall lingering risks.