November Trade Statistics

◆According to November 2015 trade statistics, export value fell for the second consecutive month by -3.3% y/y. However, looking at the seasonally adjusted value as discussed later in this report, volume is beginning to show signs of bottoming out, so these results are not necessarily all that bad. EU and Asia import value was down by -10.2% y/y in its eleventh consecutive month of decline, while the trade balance recorded a deficit of -379.7 bil yen.

◆This month’s results suggest that overseas demand has pulled out of its worst period. The US household sector continues to maintain a steady undertone, and exports centering on durables are expected to recover and enter a growth phase. As for exports to the EU, the collapse in the price of crude oil and the effects of quantitative easing initiated by the ECB are encouraging a comeback. When all is averaged out, the EU is entering a recovery phase. Meanwhile in Asia, China’s real economy is beginning to show signs of pulling out of the doldrums due to the lowering of its reserve deposit rate and interest rate, and further declines in demand centering on consumer goods will avoided.