Jul-Sep 2015 2nd Preliminary GDP Estimate
Real GDP growth rate revised considerably upwards from 1st preliminary
December 08, 2015
Summary
◆The real GDP growth rate for Jul-Sep 2015 (2nd preliminary est) was revised considerably upwards to +1.0% q/q annualized (+0.3% q/q) in comparison to the 1st preliminary report (-0.8% q/q annualized and -0.2% q/q). Results also exceeded market consensus due to the upward revision of inventory investment. When averaged with the Apr-Jun period results, the Jul-Sep period 2nd preliminary estimate reconfirms our previous opinion that Japan’s economy is in a temporary lull.
◆Performance by demand component in comparison to the 1st preliminary results shows personal consumption and public investment recording downward revisions, while inventory and capex won major upward revisions, helping to increase overall results. Capex declined by -1.3% q/q on the 1st preliminary report due to corporate statistics, but has recovered its growth trend on this report by +0.6%.
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