June 17, 2015
Summary
◆According to May 2015 trade statistics, export value grew for the ninth consecutive month at +2.4% y/y, though the extent of growth slowed considerably in comparison with the previous month, which recorded +8.0%. Performance fell below market consensus (+3.0%). Meanwhile, import value declined by -8.7% y/y, its fifth consecutive month of decline. Seasonal factors tend to make May a month where the trade balance can easily slip into a deficit, and indeed, the trade balance was in the red for the second consecutive month at -216 bil yen.
◆Looking at export value in terms of the price factor and the volume factor, we see that export volume was down for the first time in three months at -3.8% y/y, hence bringing the growth rate in export value down significantly from the previous month. The seasonally adjusted figure for export value fell for the second consecutive month at -2.7% m/m due to special factors and weak performance of exports to the US.
◆This month’s results indicate that overseas demand is taking a temporary breather from its overall recovery and growth trend. As for the future of exports, we retain our previous opinion that the moderate growth trend will continue despite some ups and downs along the way. This is made possible by the fact that favorable growth in the US economy sustains the economies of the EU and Asia, which have now bottomed out in response to monetary easing.
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