May 29, 2015
Summary
◆The April 2015 indices of industrial production grew for the first time in three months at +1.0% m/m. Results were on the low side in comparison to the previous month's forecast survey (+2.1%), but were in harmony with market consensus (+1.0%).
◆This month’s results confirm that production is in a moderate growth phase, having hit bottom in August 2014. There is no change in our previous assessment that a moderate recovery should continue on into the future. However, the recovery is a gradual one, and as far as we can determine from the METI forecast survey, production may be entering a temporary lull. The forecast survey sees May production plans up by +0.5% m/m, with June down by -0.5% in a continuation of the advance-then-retreat pattern.
◆As for the future of industrial production, the growth trend is expected to continue, supported by the underlying strength of exports. Domestic demand promises to improve in the future thanks to the positive employment environment and the collapse in energy prices, which are giving a lift to real income.
Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. reserves all copyrights of this content.
Copyright permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. is required in case of any reprint, translation, adaptation or abridgment under the copyright law. It is illegal to reprint, translate, adapt, or abridge this material without the permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd., and to quote this material represents a failure to abide by this act. Legal action may be taken for any copyright infringements. The organization name and title of the author described above are as of today.