April Trade Statistics

◆According to April 2015 trade statistics, export value grew for the eighth consecutive month at +8.0% y/y, with the extent of growth slowing just slightly in comparison with the previous month, which recorded +8.5%. Performance exceeded market consensus (+6.0%). Meanwhile, import value declined by -4.2% y/y, its fourth consecutive month of declines. The extent of decline was considerably less than the previous month (-14.5%). This resulted in the trade balance falling back into the red at -53.4 bil yen.

◆Looking at export value in terms of the price factor and the volume factor, we see that the weak yen brought upward pressure on results, with the export price increasing its growth rate to +6.0% y/y. (Last month growth was +5.1% y/y.) Export volume growth rate slowed somewhat at +1.8% y/y as compared to last month’s +3.2%, while the seasonally adjusted figure for export value fell for the first time in two months at -1.5% m/m, due mostly to declines in exports to the EU and Asia.

◆As for the future of exports, the growth trend in terms of export volume is expected to continue in association with the recovery in overseas economies, with both strengths and weakness expected to be seen as we move forward. On the other hand, growth in domestic demand is seen, along with a growth trend in import volume. Meanwhile, with the price of crude oil gradually moving toward bottoming out after its collapse provided a major factor in the rapid reduction in the trade deficit, the trade balance is now expected to hover at around zero as we move forward.