March Trade Statistics

◆According to March 2015 trade statistics, export value grew for the seventh consecutive month at +8.5% y/y, with the extent of growth also exceeding the previous month, which recorded +2.5%. Meanwhile, import value declined considerably at -14.5% y/y, bringing the trade balance back into the black for the first time in two years and nine months at +229.3 bil yen.

◆Looking at export value in terms of the price factor and the volume factor, we see that the weak yen brought upward pressure on results, with the export price increasing its growth rate to +5.1% y/y. Export volume moved back into a growth phase at +3.3% y/y recovering from the previous month’s dismal results (-2.1% y/y), helping to push up export value. The seasonally adjusted figure for export value was also up by +3.7% m/m, achieving growth for the first time in two months. It appears that in the balance, export value is maintaining its growth trend after having hit a low during the previous month due to the Lunar New Year factor in the Sinosphere.

◆The trade balance is expected to continue moving deeper into the black at a moderate pace as a result of the growth trend in export volume backed by the recovery in overseas economies. However, the rapidly falling price of crude oil, which has been a major factor in reducing the trade deficit these past months, is moving closer to hitting bottom. In addition, as domestic demand increases, import volume is expected to match that with a return to a growth trend, meaning that there is a good chance the pace of the expanding trade surplus may slow down soon. Hence the trade deficit is expected to continue hovering at around zero.