February Industrial Production

Consensus in a downswing; future likely to see ups and downs

RSS
  • Masahiko Hashimoto

Summary

◆The February 2015 indices of industrial production fell for the first time in three months by -3.4% m/m, while falling below market consensus as well (-1.8%). A broad range of industries reported declines in production, making this report an overall negative one.


◆Export volume, which is closely linked to production, experienced major growth in January associated with the Lunar New Year festivals in the Sinosphere. This made the February decline all the more steep, and likely influenced production performance. However, the three-month moving average grew for the sixth consecutive month by +0.3% m/m. Hence we are still of the opinion that industrial production is continuing its growth trend after hitting bottom in August 2014.


◆According to METI’s production forecast survey, industrial production is expected to decline again in March by -2.0% m/m, but then to bounce back in April 2015 at +3.6%. Production is expected to fall another notch in March, but a major comeback is expected in April, with modest growth seen despite some ups and downs.

Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. reserves all copyrights of this content.
Copyright permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. is required in case of any reprint, translation, adaptation or abridgment under the copyright law. It is illegal to reprint, translate, adapt, or abridge this material without the permission of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd., and to quote this material represents a failure to abide by this act. Legal action may be taken for any copyright infringements. The organization name and title of the author described above are as of today.