February Trade Statistics

◆According to February 2015 trade statistics, export value grew for the sixth consecutive month at +2.4% y/y, but the extent of growth fell far below that of the previous month, which recorded +17.0%. The seasonally adjusted figure for export value was also down by -7.0% m/m, suffering its first decline in nine months. It appears that the growth rate which had continued until now has slowed down, with exports now merely treading water as of this point.

◆However, we have to keep in mind that both January’s sharp growth and February’s decline were influenced largely by Lunar New Year celebrations in the Sinosphere. Export value to China grew by +20.8% y/y in January and then fell sharply in February to -17.3%. Although we cannot assess February performance as having been positive, it still exceeded market consensus (+0.3% y/y) which was low due to the Lunar New Year factor. Meanwhile, considering the fact that the total in export value to the entire world in January and February together maintained high growth at +9.4% y/y, we believe these are not completely pessimistic results.

◆Import value declined on a y/y basis for the second consecutive month at -3.6% y/y. Meanwhile, import volume achieved growth for the first time in five months at +4.5% y/y. The collapse in the price of crude oil brought the import price down by -7.8% y/y, a major factor in pushing down import value. As a result, the trade balance recorded a deficit for the thirty-second consecutive month at -424.6 bil yen, but shrank in comparison to the previous month. In seasonally adjusted terms, the trade balance recorded an increase for the first time in three months at -638.8 bil yen, due to the major decline in exports.