January 30, 2015
Summary
◆The December 2014 indices of industrial production grew for the first time in two months at +1.0% m/m, falling a tad below market consensus (+1.2%). However, the three-month moving average has grown for four consecutive months, so we continue to believe that production is still on its way to a comeback. According to METI’s production forecast survey, production plans in the manufacturing industry are expected to continue to exhibit extreme confidence.
◆As for production index performance by industry in December, eleven out of the total of fifteen industries recorded growth. Contribution to overall performance was especially large from electronic parts and devices (+5.2% m/m), information and communication electronics equipment (+10.8%), and chemicals (+2.5%), helping to push overall performance up. Each of these industries was expected to see growth in production according to last month’s production forecast survey, hence things went according to plan.
◆According to METI’s production forecast survey, industrial production is expected to grow by +6.3% m/m in January 2015, but then decline in February at -1.8% m/m. Despite the expected decline in production in February, the especially high level of production seen in January should balance things out, with production expected to continue growth beyond that point.
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