November Trade Statistics

◆According to November 2014 trade statistics, export value grew for the third consecutive month at +4.9% y/y, falling below market consensus at +7.0% y/y. This was due to the progressively weak yen, which caused export price to grow by +6.7% y/y, while extent of growth last month also expanded by +4.6% y/y. On the other hand, export volume fell by -1.7% y/y, the first time it has suffered a y/y decline in three months. As a result, the growth rate in export value since last month shrank. The seasonally adjusted figure for export value grew by +0.3% m/m, its sixth consecutive month of growth. The growth trend continued as prices rose due to the progressively cheaper yen, which bolstered export value.

◆November import value declined for the first time in three months at -1.7% y/y. Though the decline in the international commodities market was a factor working toward a decline in prices, the increasingly weak yen became the more powerful factor, bringing the import price to +5.7% y/y, a wider range of growth than the previous month (+4.8%). On the other hand, import volume suffered a decline for the second consecutive month at -6.9%, becoming a factor in pushing down import value. As a result, the trade balance recorded a deficit for the twenty-ninth consecutive month at -891.9 bil yen. However, this actually represented a y/y shrinkage of the deficit for the second consecutive month.

◆The export volume index in seasonally adjusted terms (DIR) fell for the first time in three months at -1.4% m/m. However, the extent of growth in November was greater than the extent of decline in October, leading the three-month moving average to grow for the fourth consecutive month. We can therefore deduce that export volume is very gradually making a comeback.