September Trade Statistics

◆According to September 2014 trade statistics, export value grew for the first time in two months at +6.9% y/y, and exceeded market consensus (+6.5% y/y). This was due to export volume having grown for the first time in two months by +2.8% y/y, along with a progressively weaker yen which increased the extent of growth in export price to +4.0% y/y. Growth in export price was the main factor in pushing up the seasonally adjusted figure for export value to +3.1% m/m. Export value is strengthening its growth trend.

◆The export volume index in seasonally adjusted terms (DIR) also grew for the first time in two months at +1.1% m/m. Export volume continues to mark time. In export volume by region, declines were seen in US (-1.1% m/m) and EU exports (-6.3%), while figures were propped up considerably by export volume to Asia at +4.2% m/m.

◆Export volume is expected to gradually move toward a growth trend in the future. However, as of this point, there are increasing signs that overseas economies may be facing a slowdown, so attention should be paid to increasing risk of a delay in recovery. Japan is expected to continue running up a trade deficit with expanding domestic demand and continued growth seen for both import volume and value, plus the progressive weakening of the yen has continued past August.