July Trade Statistics

Trade deficit shrinks slightly; export volume remains stagnant

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August 20, 2014

  • Masahiko Hashimoto

Summary

◆According to July 2014 trade statistics, exports in monetary terms were up +3.9% y/y, the first time in three months the statistic achieved year-to-year growth. Meanwhile, figures were pretty much in line with market consensus (+3.8% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis, the export amount was up +1.5% m/m, its second consecutive month of growth. Exports in monetary terms have gradually declined since the end of 2013 due mainly to the decline in export prices. However, export prices have recently experienced a turnaround, and hence export amount is now showing signs of a comeback as well.


◆The July import amount achieved y/y growth for the second consecutive month at +2.3%. While import volume was down in year-to-year terms for the first time in two months at -0.4%, the import price grew by +2.7%, thereby outperforming its former growth rate and pushing up the import amount.


◆The trade balance was in the red by 964 bil yen, the first time in two months the trade deficit shrank in year-to-year terms. On a seasonally adjusted basis the trade deficit hit 1.02 tril yen, shrinking just slightly in m/m terms.


◆The export volume index on a seasonally adjusted basis (DIR) fell in m/m terms for the first time in two months at -0.1%. Export volume continued to mark time.

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