April Trade Statistics

◆According to April 2014 trade statistics, exports in monetary terms were up +5.1% y/y, the 14^th consecutive month of growth, outperforming market consensus (+4.8%) by just a tad. The export price was up +3.0% y/y, a somewhat slower growth rate than last month when it was at +4.4%, while export volume grew in year-to-year terms for the first time in 2 months, recording +2.0% y/y. In seasonally adjusted terms export amount grew for the first time in 2 months, registering +0.6% in month-to-month terms.

◆Export volume index on a seasonally adjusted basis (DIR) grew for the first time in 2 months registering +1.6% m/m. By region, exports to the US were up +2.4% m/m, while EU gained +3.7% and Asia was up by +0.1%, confirming robust growth in exports in April.

◆As for the future, export volume is expected to gradually show an increasingly unambiguous return to a growth trend. As has been confirmed by April figures, the March bottleneck which developed due to the prioritization of domestic shipments has been resolved, and export volume is expected to get back on track in the future with the help of recovery in overseas demand.

◆In monetary terms, April imports made y/y gains for the 18th consecutive month at +3.4% y/y, but shrunk quite a bit in terms of growth rate (+18.1% y/y in March). The import price continued to grow by 4.7% in y/y terms, while import volume suffered a y/y decline at -1.3%, causing a major decrease in import amount. Imports grew through the end of March due to last minute demand prior to the increase in the consumption tax and growth in imports of crude oil and petroleum products in anticipation of the increase in taxes on oil and coal. These influences appear to have run their course in April. As a result of the above factors, Japan’s trade balance was in the red for the 22^nd month in a row at 808.9 bil yen.