November Trade Statistics

◆In the November 2013 Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance), export value posted a y/y advance for the ninth month in a row (up 18.4%), overshooting the market consensus (up 18.0%). Breaking down export value, export price remains on a strong uptrend (up 11.6%) and export volume saw the second monthly gain in a row (up 6.1%), pushing up export value. On a seasonally adjusted m/m basis, export value posted the first slide in two months (down 0.2%), while posting the 12th consecutive gain on a three-month moving average basis, indicating that the underlying uptrend continues.

◆The Export Volume Index (seasonally adjusted by DIR) posted the second m/m gain in a row (up 1.9%). By trading partner, exports to the EU and US declined, while those to Asian trading partners saw a boost (up 4.1%), pushing up the headline index.

◆We anticipate export volume continuing to firm up going forward, centering on exports to the US and Asian trading partners. Imports from Japan to the US are expected to increase gradually, as consumer spending in the US has been on a steady uptrend. The EU economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a moderate pace, and exports to the EU from Japan are also likely to return to an uptrend. While Asian economies are likely to recover at a moderate pace, Asian emerging economies are likely to have bottomed. Thus, exports to Asian trading partners will likely prop up overall exports from Japan.