Second Preliminary Estimate of 3Q 2013 GDP
Growth downgrade short of consensus, but within scope of allowance
December 09, 2013
Summary
◆In the second preliminary estimate of Jul-Sep (3Q) 2013 GDP (Cabinet Office), real GDP was +0.3% q/q, annualized at +1.1%, a downgrade from the first preliminary estimate (up 0.5%; up 1.9%). The result was short of the market consensus (up 0.4%; up 1.6%) but does not show any particular negative surprise. We thus maintain our view on the economy.
◆By GDP demand component, after factoring in figures in Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry for Jul-Sep 2013 (Ministry of Finance [MOF]), capex saw a downgrade from the first preliminary estimate (from up 0.2% q/q to up 0.0%). Inventory investments also saw a downgrade (contribution to real GDP growth: up 0.4 points to up 0.2 points) after factoring in MOF statistics, a major factor behind the downgrade of the second preliminary estimate. Contrary to expectations for an upgrade, public investment was almost flat from the first estimate, resulting in a shortfall to the consensus expectation.
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