August 19, 2013
Summary
◆In the July 2013 Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance), export value posted a y/y advance for the fifth month in a row (up 12.2%) but slightly undershot consensus expectations (up 12.8%). Meanwhile, it posted the first m/m slide in eight months (down 1.8%; seasonally adjusted), indicating a slowdown in the pace of growth of export value.
◆Export volume posted the first y/y advance in 14 months (up 1.8%), while its level has been firming up. By trading partner, the Export Volume Index to Asian trading partners saw the second y/y slide in a row. However, that to the US saw the first advance in three months and that to the EU posted the first gain in 14 months, pushing up overall export volume.
◆We anticipate export value continuing to increase, as export volume gains momentum accompanying the global economic recovery, centering on the US, and the lagging effects of the weaker yen since end-2012. Meanwhile, the EU economy is signaling a bottoming out of the ongoing recession, indicating export volume to the EU is likely to firm up gradually. However, emerging market economies, centering on China, warrant a close watch.
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