May Trade Statistics

Weaker yen boosting export value, export volume continues to firm up

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  • Masahiko Hashimoto

Summary

◆In the May 2013 Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance), export value increased 10.1% y/y and substantially overshot consensus expectations (up 6.4%). Export value saw a y/y advance for the third month in a row and posted a m/m gain for the sixth month in a row (up 3.2%; seasonally adjusted), meaning the ongoing uptrend continues.


◆Export Volume Index (seasonally adjusted by DIR) posted the first m/m slide in three months (down 0.6%). However, it advanced for the third consecutive month on a three-month moving average basis, confirming the firming up continues in volume terms.


◆We anticipate export value continuing to increase along with export volume growth. The forex factor will support export volume as positive effects of the shift to a weaker yen since end-2012 will emerge in full swing going forward—empirically, the shift to a weaker yen will lead to a gain in export volume with around a six-month lag. The trade balance is unlikely to turn to a surplus for the time being. However, the margin of trade deficit will likely narrow, accompanied by higher export volume.

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