March 21, 2013
Summary
◆In the February 2013 Trade Statistics (Ministry of Finance), export value declined 2.9% y/y, the first slide in two months, with a wider fall than consensus expectations (down 1.7%). Breaking down export value, a substantial 15.0% export price gain, reflecting the weaker yen trend, contrasted with the significant slump in export volume (down 15.5%).
◆February figures should be discounted to some extent because lower y/y growth partly reflected calendar effects (leap year in 2012; Lunar New Year in Jan in 2012 vs. Feb in 2013). On a seasonally adjusted basis, export value increased 1.3% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly gain, indicating that the ongoing uptrend in export value continues, supported by advances in export prices.
◆Looking at export volume (indicator closely related to domestic economic activity; seasonally adjusted by DIR) by trading partner, that to the US saw the first decline in three months, that to Asian trading partners and the EU declined for the second consecutive month. As a whole, it declined for the second consecutive month (down 1.0% m/m). The Lunar New Year factor should explain the slide in such volume to Asian trading partners to some extent. However, declines were seen as well for that to the US and EU, for which the impact of such a factor is limited, indicating that the underlying downtrend continues.
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