Research
Employing our expertise built on analyses spanning many years and many areas, our research division provides information and proposals to both within and outside the Daiwa Securities group on a broad range of topics from domestic and global economic forecasts and policy analysis, through to financial/capital market and financial business trends, financial taxation, and environmental and CSR issues. Our track record has enabled us to win support to be used as their guideline of Japan's economy. We have also carved a role in policy formation through reflection of our research in the management of Japanese economic policy, as well as in financial and capital market reforms.
Research Reports
Japan's Economy: Monthly Review
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June 05, 2013
Assessment of Abenomics (May 2013)
Japan’s economy expected to continue expanding, partly supported by Abenomics
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
April 22, 2013
Debut of BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda(April 2013)
Economy to expand gradually but four risks should be kept in mind
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
March 21, 2013
Economy on recovery path partly reflecting Abenomics(Mar 2013)
Any deepening of European sovereign debt crisis/other risks warrant monitoring
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
March 06, 2013
Examination of four concerns regarding Abenomics(Feb 2013)
Maintaining fiscal discipline, shoring up growth strategies indispensable
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
January 22, 2013
How Should "Abenomics" Be Understood?(Jan 2013)
Taking account of such factors as improving sentiment following the formation of the Abe administration, economic outlook provisionally revised
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto -
December 19, 2012
Economic policies required of incoming Abe administration(Dec 2012)
Four prescriptions for rehabilitating Japan’s economy
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
November 28, 2012
What Will Prompt Economic Recovery?(Nov 2012)
Quantitative simulation of world economy
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
October 23, 2012
Impact of Anti-Japan Protests in China(Oct 2012)
Economy on the verge of recession; five downside risks
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto -
September 21, 2012
Examination of Japan's Export Competitiveness(Sep 2012)
Japanese companies have to learn how to build brand equity from Germany and how to strengthen marketing power from South Korea
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
August 31, 2012
Factors behind deflation and policy responses required of the government and Bank of Japan(Aug 2012)
Economy to expand gradually but four risks should be kept in mind
Mitsumaru Kumagai
Japan's Economic Outlook (Quarterly)
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June 11, 2013
Assessment of Abenomics: Examination of current situation and future issues(No. 177 Update)[Summary]
Japan to see real GDP growth of +3.1% in FY13 and +0.7% in FY14, nominal GDP growth of +3.0% and +2.0%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
June 03, 2013
Assessment of Abenomics: Examination of current situation and future issues(No.177)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +3.1% in FY13 and +0.7% in FY14, nominal GDP growth of +3.0% and +2.0%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
March 12, 2013
Will Abenomics Rehabilitate Japan's Economy?(No. 176 Update)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +1.0% in FY12, +2.7% in FY13, and +0.4% in FY14, nominal GDP growth of +0.1%, +2.1%, and +1.5%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
March 05, 2013
Will Abenomics Rehabilitate Japan's Economy?(No.176)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +0.9% in FY12, +2.7% in FY13, and +0.4% in FY14, nominal GDP growth of +0.1%, +2.1%, and +1.5%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
December 11, 2012
Exploring a Recovery Scenario: How should Chinese and world economies be understood?(No. 175 Update)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +1.0% in FY12 and +1.1% in FY13, nominal GDP growth of +0.3% and +0.8%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
November 27, 2012
Exploring a Recovery Scenario: How should Chinese and world economies be understood?(No.175)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +0.7% in FY12 and +0.9% in FY13, nominal GDP growth of -0.0% and +0.5%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
September 11, 2012
Factors behind deflation and policy responses required of the government and Bank of Japan(No.174 Update)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +1.8% in FY12 and +1.2% in FY13, nominal GDP growth of +1.0% and +0.9%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
August 30, 2012
Factors behind deflation and policy responses required of the government and Bank of Japan(No.174)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +2.2% in FY12 and +1.4% in FY13, nominal GDP growth of +1.3% and +1.2%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Satoshi Osanai, Chisaki Masukawa, Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo -
June 11, 2012
Examination of risk factors: Current account balance turning negative, and Greece leaving the euro(No.173 Update)
Japan to see real GDP growth of +2.4% in FY12 and +1.3% in FY13, nominal GDP growth of +1.7% and +1.0%
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Satoshi Osanai, Chisaki Masukawa, Tsutomu Saito
Japan's Medium-term Economic Outlook
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March 13, 2013
Japan's Medium-term Economic Outlook -February 2013-
Ability of Japan’s economy to ramp up growth capacity to be tested
Tomoya Kondo, Mikio Mizobata, Keiji Kanda -
August 21, 2012
Japan's Medium-term Economic Outlook -July 2012-
Japan faces fork in the road as globalization/graying of society progress
Tomoya Kondo, Mikio Mizobata, Keiji Kanda -
February 14, 2012
Japan's Medium-term Economic Outlook -January 2012-
Japan overcomes strong yen, electricity supply shortages, and higher taxes in a synchronized world economy
Hitoshi Suzuki, Mikio Mizobata, Keiji Kanda -
July 13, 2011
Japan's Medium-term Economic Outlook -June 2011-
Overcoming the earthquake, Japan aims for tangible growth
Hitoshi Suzuki, Mikio Mizobata, Keiji Kanda
Japan's Economic Indicator
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June 19, 2013
May Trade Statistics
Weaker yen boosting export value, export volume continues to firm up
Masahiko Hashimoto -
June 12, 2013
April Machinery Orders
Favorable overall excl. reactionary slide
Tsutomu Saito -
June 10, 2013
Second Preliminary Estimate of 1Q 2013 GDP
Upswing in inventories but as expected in general
Masahiko Hashimoto -
May 31, 2013
April Industrial Production
Ongoing recovery vs. cautious projections
Masahiko Hashimoto -
May 22, 2013
April Trade Statistics
Short of expectations but steady overall; export volume firming up
Masahiko Hashimoto -
May 17, 2013
March Machinery Orders
Projection for higher manufacturing orders a signal for capex advance?
Tsutomu Saito -
May 16, 2013
Jan-Mar 2013 First Preliminary GDP Estimate
Positive growth with balanced domestic and foreign demand
Masahiko Hashimoto -
April 30, 2013
March Industrial Production
Underlying uptrend continues
Masahiko Hashimoto -
April 18, 2013
March Trade Statistics
Exports also signal end to slide in volume terms
Masahiko Hashimoto -
April 11, 2013
February Machinery Orders
Despite first gain in two months, underlying trend weak
Tsutomu Saito -
April 01, 2013
March 2013 Tankan Survey
Large manufacturer DI improved but undershot expectations
Masahiko Hashimoto -
March 29, 2013
February Industrial Production
Unexpected slide in Feb vs. turnaround of underlining trend
Masahiko Hashimoto -
March 21, 2013
February Trade Statistics
Value basis recovery vs. volume basis stagnation in export volume
Masahiko Hashimoto -
March 11, 2013
January Machinery Orders
Plunge in domestic/foreign demand vs. bright signs by industry
Tsutomu Saito -
March 08, 2013
Second Preliminary Estimate of 4Q 2012 GDP
Upgrade as expected
Masahiko Hashimoto, Mitsumaru Kumagai -
February 28, 2013
January Industrial Production
Production recovered, but slightly undershot expectations
Masahiko Hashimoto -
February 20, 2013
January Trade Statistics
Exports halting decline, but still not strong
Masahiko Hashimoto -
February 14, 2013
Oct-Dec 2012 First Preliminary GDP Estimate
Negative growth for third consecutive quarter due to lower exports
Masahiko Hashimoto, Mitsumaru Kumagai -
February 07, 2013
December 2012 Machinery Orders
Orders firming up and should advance going forward
Masahiko Hashimoto -
January 31, 2013
December 2012 Industrial Production
Undershooting expectations but signaling a bottoming
Masahiko Hashimoto -
January 24, 2013
December 2012 Trade Statistics
Exports signaling a bottoming
Masahiko Hashimoto -
January 16, 2013
November 2012 Machinery Orders
Domestic and overseas orders steady
Masahiko Hashimoto -
December 19, 2012
November Trade Statistics
Exports continued to decline
Masahiko Hashimoto -
December 14, 2012
December 2012 Tankan Survey
Sentiment deteriorates significantly for large manufacturers
Masahiko Hashimoto -
December 12, 2012
October Machinery Orders
Sluggish manufacturing orders vs. firm non-manufacturing orders
Masahiko Hashimoto -
December 10, 2012
Second Preliminary Estimate of 3Q 2012 GDP
Remained flat from first preliminary estimate
Masahiko Hashimoto , Mitsumaru Kumagai -
November 30, 2012
October Industrial Production
First gain in four months; production projection bullish
Masahiko Hashimoto -
November 21, 2012
October Trade Statistics
Exports continued to decline; auto exports to China plunged
Masahiko Hashimoto -
November 12, 2012
Jul-Sep 2012 First Preliminary GDP Estimate
First negative growth in three quarters, reflecting deterioration in domestic/overseas demand
Masahiko Hashimoto, Mitsumaru Kumagai -
November 08, 2012
September Machinery Orders
Ongoing decline continues but non-manufacturing order projection strong
Masahiko Hashimoto -
October 30, 2012
September Industrial Production
Wide range of declines, centering on transportation equipment
Masahiko Hashimoto -
October 22, 2012
September Trade Statistics
Impact of Worsening China-Japan Relations Partly Seen
Masahiko Hashimoto -
October 11, 2012
August Machinery Orders
Still weak, centering on manufacturing orders
Masahiko Hashimoto -
October 01, 2012
September 2012 Tankan Survey
Treading water but worsening confined to expectations
Masahiko Hashimoto -
September 28, 2012
August Industrial Production
Doldrums to persist; full-fledged recovery unlikely before 2013
Masahiko Hashimoto -
September 10, 2012
Second Preliminary Estimate of 2Q 2012 GDP
Capex/inventories downgraded but DIR economic outlook unchanged
Masahiko Hashimoto, Mitsumaru Kumagai -
August 27, 2012
Indicators Review (25 Jul-21 Aug)
Tsutomu Saito, Shotaro Kugo, Chisaki Masukawa
Economic Analysis
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March 13, 2013
Monetary Policy at a Turning Point, Effects of a Weaker Yen on Prices
Difficult to achieve inflation target on weaker yen alone
Keiji Kanda -
January 23, 2013
FY12 Supplementary Budget Will Boost FY13 GDP by 0.7 Points
Reactionary plunge likely in FY14
Tsutomu Saito -
July 13, 2012
Effects of China's Auto/Home Appliance Subsidies on Production in Japan
Two perspectives of production in Japan and by Japanese companies
Satoshi Osanai -
July 11, 2012
Current Situation and Future Outlook for Eco-friendly Car Subsidies
Program to run out of funds in August
Tsutomu Saito -
December 30, 2011
Rolling Back the Strong Yen under a Dollar Reserve Currency Regime
Dollar reserve currency regime will remain unchanged; long-term view needed in considering measures to counter the strong yen
Keiji Kanda, Hitoshi Suzuki -
November 22, 2011
Households Hold Key to Resolving Power Shortage
Demand control based on price mechanism and smart grids
Mikio Mizobata, Keiji Kanda, Hitoshi Suzuki, Yuko Manabe, Yukiko Oguro -
September 16, 2011
Renewable Energy Act and Effect on Electricity Prices
Increase in electricity prices depends on renewable energy installed capacity and FIT
Keiji Kanda, Mikio Mizobata, Hitoshi Suzuki -
July 25, 2011
Power Shortage and Japan's Economy
Annual GDP loss would top Y14 tril on average under pessimistic scenario
Mikio Mizobata, Keiji Kanda, Hitoshi Suzuki -
May 23, 2011
Post-quake Bottleneck and GDP Gap
Negative GDP gap in Jan-Mar 2011 GDP widening
Satoshi Osanai -
March 22, 2011
Provisional Analysis of the Tohoku-Kanto Earthquake Impact
Short-term economic downturn likely due to (1) lost production from scheduled power outages and (2) worsening of consumer confidence
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Hiroshi Watanabe, Keiji Kanda, Satoshi Osanai, Ryohei Kasahara -
February 25, 2011
Special Review: Impact of Middle East Turmoil on Japan's Economy
Mini-stagflation risk because of surging crude oil prices and yen appreciation
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Hiroshi Watanabe -
February 02, 2011
Positive Outlook for the World Economy vs. Risk of Resource Prices Sustaining a "Bad" Increase
Where volatile excess liquidity goes will require close monitoring
Hiroshi Watanabe, Mitsumaru Kumagai -
June 22, 2010
Effect of Revaluation of the Yuan on Japan's Economy
Limited impact on Japan’s economy as long as the yen does not appreciate sharply reflecting yuan revaluation
Mitsumaru Kumagai -
March 03, 2009
Scenario of 8% Growth in China Inducing Recovery in Japan Incorrect
Exports from Japan to China moving in line with China’s electric power generation rather than its GDP growth
Mitsumaru Kumagai, Masahiko Hashimoto
Legal and Tax
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October 15, 2012
Q&A Regarding Share Ownership Restrictions on Foreign Investors
Jun Yokoyama -
June 26, 2012
Ways to Offset Regressive Impact of Consumption Tax Hikes
On the regressive impact of consumption tax, refundable tax credits, and tax rate reductions
Shungo Koreeda -
April 12, 2012
TSE Relaxed Earnings Forecast Disclosure Rules
Disclosure made more flexible, but dialog emphasized
Kazuhiro Yoshii -
April 05, 2012
TSE Proposal to Strengthen Independent Auditor/director System
Jun Yokoyama -
June 28, 2010
Revisions to Corporate Governance Disclosures
Jun Yokoyama -
June 22, 2010
Disclosure of Shareholdings
Jun Yokoyama -
June 18, 2010
Disclosure of Executive Compensation
Jun Yokoyama -
June 14, 2010
Extraordinary Reports of Voting Results
Jun Yokoyama -
June 08, 2010
Calculating Impact of Child Allowance
Benefit of child allowance reduced to 20% if kept at half proposed level
Shungo Koreeda -
September 11, 2009
Democratic Party of Japan: Securities and Financial Policy
New Administration Will Move Towards Implementing Japanese-Style FSA, Public Companies Act, and Comprehensive Financial Markets and Services Legislation
Kazuhiro Yoshii -
September 11, 2009
Democratic Party of Japan and Securities Tax Policy
Taxes could increase
Kazuhiro Yoshii -
September 07, 2009
DPJ Administration's Tax Reform Policy (Outline)
Comparison with the outgoing LDP administration's policy
Shungo Koreeda -
February 26, 2009
New Accounting Standards for Mergers and Consolidations (Summary)
Major Practical Impact
Kazuhiro Yoshii -
November 18, 2008
Past Financial Crisis Handling in Japan
Timeline of capital infusions, acquisitions of NPLs and shares
Kazuhiro Yoshii -
July 25, 2008
Bill for Amendment of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, etc. enacted
Series of reports on the 2008 amendments to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act
Jun Yokoyama -
July 23, 2008
TSE Listing System Improvements for FY08
Comprehensive Improvement Program for the TSE Listing System
Jun Yokoyama -
July 22, 2008
Corporate Value Study Group's Report on Takeover Defenses
In principle, payments to a prospective acquirer are not required when defenses are implemented
Yuki Kanemoto -
April 21, 2008
Depreciation Regulations Revisions to Depreciation Periods-Part 4
Comparison of new depreciation schedule (Categories 17-55) and former schedule
Takuma Torige -
April 15, 2008
Depreciation Regulations Revisions to Depreciation Periods-Part 3
Comparison of new depreciation schedule (Categories 13-16) and former schedule
Takuma Torige -
April 11, 2008
Depreciation Regulations Revisions to Depreciation Periods-Part 2
Comparison of new depreciation schedule (Categories 8-12) and former schedule
Takuma Torige -
April 10, 2008
Depreciation Regulations Revisions to Depreciation Periods-Part 1
Comparison of new depreciation schedule (Categories 1-7) and former schedule
Takuma Torige -
August 02, 2007
Tax Treatment of Triangular Mergers by Foreign Companies Made Simpler
Establishment of new subsidiaries made possible
Kazuhiro Yoshii -
February 01, 2007
Large Shareholding Reports and Major Proposals
Jun Yokoyama -
January 24, 2007
Revised Provisions for Large Joint Shareholdings
Jun Yokoyama -
January 11, 2007
Large Shareholding Reporting Periods Substantially Reduced from January 2007
Jun Yokoyama -
May 15, 2006
Revision of Large Shareholding Reporting System
Jun Yokoyama
Other Research Reports
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April 13, 2011
Stock Supply/demand Following Earthquake
Buying, selling pressure satisfied by foreign inflows, selling futures to unwind arbitrage positions
Takahiro Tsuchiya -
July 15, 2010
New Disclosures on Shareholdings Among TOPIX Core 30
Tighter regulation putting cross-shareholdings up for reconsideration
Yuzo Fujishima -
March 12, 2009
Corporate Governance Reform (5) -M&A Activities-
Negotiations between bidder and target firm can be problematic
Yutaka Suzuki -
March 12, 2009
Corporate Governance Reform (4) -Outside Directors-
May make outside directors mandatory, increase their independence
Yutaka Suzuki -
March 11, 2009
Corporate Governance Reform (3) -Private Placement-
Private placement under review to protect shareholders from dilution
Yutaka Suzuki -
February 23, 2009
Corporate Governance Reform (2) -Disclosure of Shareholder Voting-
Disclosure of voting results under discussion
Yutaka Suzuki -
February 23, 2009
Corporate Governance Reform (1) -Investigative Agencies-
Investigations into corporate governance
Yutaka Suzuki

